Stainless Steel Futures Hit Bottom and Rebounded, Market Wait-and-See Sentiment Persisted, Inquiries Increased but Transactions Were Insufficient [SMM Stainless Steel Daily Report]

Published: Oct 16, 2025 17:59

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[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review: Stainless Steel Futures Hit Bottom and Rebounded, Wait-and-See Sentiment Remained, Inquiries Increased but Transactions Were Insufficient] SMM October 16 - SS futures showed a trend of hitting bottom and rebounding. During yesterday's night session, dragged down by the pullback in SHFE nickel and ferrous metals, SS futures further hit bottom. By the morning session opening, it once fell below 12,500 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, driven by the halt in decline and strengthening of SHFE nickel, SS followed the rise. By the close, it rose to 12,615 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by the weakness in SS futures before noon, spot transactions were relatively sluggish, and offers further declined. In the afternoon, driven by the rebound in futures, market offers followed the rise, and inquiry activity increased. Currently, stainless steel prices have reached relatively low levels, and steel mills are already in a situation of cost-price inversion. However, market transactions are significantly disturbed by the fluctuations in futures, and downstream players still maintain a strong wait-and-see sentiment. This week, social inventory increased significantly, up 5.19% WoW, to 952,600 mt. In futures, the most-traded contract 2512 hit bottom and then rebounded strongly. At 10:30 a.m., SS2511 was quoted at 12,525 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 445-745 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was 8,000 yuan/mt; the average price for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil was 12,950 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 12,950 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was 25,500 yuan/mt, and 25,500 yuan/mt in Foshan...

SMM October 16 - SS futures showed a pattern of hitting bottom and rebounding. During yesterday's night session, dragged down by the pullback in SHFE nickel and ferrous metals, SS futures further explored lower levels. By the morning opening, they once fell below 12,500 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, driven by SHFE nickel's halt in decline and strengthening, SS followed the upward trend, rising to 12,615 yuan/mt by the close. In the spot market, influenced by the weakness in SS futures before noon, spot transactions were relatively sluggish, and offers moved lower. In the afternoon, spurred by the futures rebound, market offers followed the rise, and inquiry activity increased. Stainless steel prices are currently at relatively low levels, and steel mills are already facing inverted cost prices. However, market transactions are significantly affected by the fluctuations in futures, and downstream players maintain a strong wait-and-see sentiment. This week, social inventory increased substantially, up 5.19% WoW, reaching 952,600 mt.

Futures side, the most-traded contract 2512 strengthened after a dip and rebound. At 10:30 AM, SS2511 was quoted at 12,525 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 445-745 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,000 yuan/mt; the average price for cold-rolled mill edge 304/2B coil was 12,950 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil was 25,500 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan; the price for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil was 24,950 yuan/mt in both locations; the price for cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,600 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan.

During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the domestic stainless steel market was generally on holiday, with shipments and warehouse movements restricted, and spot transactions suspended. However, LME nickel futures prices rose consecutively starting from the middle of the holiday, boosting nickel and stainless steel futures prices and strengthening market confidence. Currently, there is a significant divergence between the fundamentals of the stainless steel market and macro expectations. From a macro perspective, the US government shutdown during the holiday spurred safe-haven demand for funds, pushing up commodity futures prices overall. Coupled with expectations for two more US Fed interest rate cuts within the year, the overall environment is favorable for commodity prices. However, stainless steel fundamentals appear somewhat weak. Despite being in the traditional September-October peak consumption season, downstream demand recovery is limited, market transactions are relatively sluggish, and social inventory has shown a trend of stopping declines and rebounding. Furthermore, prices for raw materials like high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome have softened, leading to a weakening cost support for stainless steel. Going forward, attention should remain on the realization of macro news and changes in downstream demand.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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